To the Economy As the Central Bank of Russia inflation targetirovat
Monday — time to talk about. In a sense, Monday begins on Saturday, well, because on Friday held a meeting of our Central Bank. So today is the first working day after the decision of the regulator. Something for the players, market participants had Saturday and Sunday to understand. They understood something, and with them the ordinary people — the autopsy, as they say, will tell. About it says in the program «Replica» economic analyst Alexei Bobrovsky.
At the Friday meeting, the Bank of Russia left its interest rate unchanged at 11%. As this decision encountered in the financial market on the first working day of the week? As far as now the Russian economy will depend on the game commodity and currency traders?
It’s autopsy — can show?! First, the determination of the Central Bank again not enough to lower rates. Because there is a convenient COP-out: increased inflation risks! The Central Bank generally removed from statment phrase on the resumption of rate cut at a future meeting. It was all expected. Compensated hardness in relation to the rates of the Central Bank easing rhetoric at all. We analyze this style of statment the Central Bank, i.e. an official statement after the meeting, in the style of Western business media.
In fact, on hand we have a minuscule five aces, and that, secondly, we are even more strapped himself to oil prices, and it is a fact, Monsieur Duke, as the character of beloved Soviet Western. Today, even domestic factors for the Russian market is irrelevant. The same period of tax payments is already in full swing, however, our currency is fully repeats the dynamics of oil prices! It’s very sad.
It is important to understand that the Central Bank, most likely, will prefer the reduction of the rates of replenishment of reserves if the ruble will continue to strengthen. I.e. at some point to buy currency on the market, the regulator will begin, if oil prices will increase further. But there’s doubt: the play in the commodities market is far from over.
It is interesting, as now the negotiations between the members of OPEC and other oil countries. It so happened (we assume accidentally) that this meeting will take place after various sessions of world Central Bank, which is good. So more or less it became clear that will make their currency the world’s major Central Bank that has to respond.
Given all these circumstances and those comments that have made our Central Bank, what he laid in the final version of the baseline scenario lower oil price, expect monetary stimulus from the regulator. Ie, as before, the Central Bank to help the economy did not see the point, and the main duty sees as its task to stamp the promised inflation to 4% or so. That she, inflation, will, as earlier promised, the Bank of Russia, 4% in 2017, now few believe, and the Central Bank already indicates the circumstances that can stop it. And hurt, put.
Thus, one of the conclusions, and it is still relevant, is that the future of the Russian economy are still in the hands of players in world commodity and currency markets. The set of incentives that modify our economic agencies, even if it will find the money locally will be able to correct the situation, but in General far more important and urgent problem is the set of external risks, and this is evidenced by the Central Bank.
So, will the Russian economy out confidently from the recession soon, we will be able to say, once we understand the fate of the American, Chinese and European economies.