The latest forecasts speaker: oil at 55 dollars, dollar to 60 rubles
photo: Gennady Cherkasov
The Russian economy is in a severe structural crisis. While most of the other countries is slowly gathering momentum, last year we lost 3.7% of GDP — nearly 3 trillion rubles. This year, according to Alexei Ulyukayev, in January, the national economy lost another 2%, but the downturn has reached bottom in June of last year. On growth, although uncertain and obscure.
In principle, this is good. But what are the factors that confirm this?
As always, we will start (sadly) with fundamentals of the Russian economy — oil and gas.
At the end of January the «black gold» fell to $27 per barrel. And now we are talking about almost $42. What is the reason for decent growth?
In principle, several of them. But the main — the main oil-producing countries (Saudi Arabia, OPEC plus Russia) suffer any large losses. And not only Moscow, but also Riyadh. As long as the capital finally made a drastic reduction in production of shale oil in the US, and began to take a step back (or forward, based on the rising cost of oil).
Therefore, exporters of «black gold» in the majority have to agree on at least freezing production at the level of January of this year. Of course, not everyone agrees with this. Iran requires to enable it to increase production from the current three million barrels to «sanctions» four in a day. But still — the train started. Oil production obviously will not grow in the foreseeable future. Rather to decline. Hence, the superiority of supply over demand is also gradually going down. As a result the prices will again go up.
However, they are unlikely, according to the speaker, will return to pre-crisis times — significantly above $100 per barrel. On the contrary, they will long fluctuate within the range of not exceeding $55 per barrel.
Moreover, the ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin warns that such prices are still good: in his version, in the near future, prices will fluctuate in the range of $30-50, and at times falls significantly below the first evaluation.
The oil era is inferior to alternative sources of energy.
But the speaker in response provides Federal budgets to form on the basis of oil prices above $40 per barrel. Then there will be the opportunity for maneuver.
By the way, the excess supply of oil over demand, which it in the last two years and dropped in price, somewhat exaggerated.
U.S. media reports that the International energy Agency (IEA) based in Paris, constantly overstates the difference between demand and supply. And not a small amount. So, the IEA recently argued that the possible oil exports exceeded imports in every day mode of 1.9 million barrels. And then it turned out that the IEA value added as much as 0.8 million
Why the experts did, of course. The current chief economist of the IEA — Fatih Birol, who previously worked at OPEC. He is responsible for the reports of this distinguished Agency. But it is alarming that both the IEA and OPEC at the same time announced a significant excess of supply over demand.
So by the end of this year, oil may rise to $55 per barrel. Accordingly, the ruble will remain in the current forecast of Ministry of economic development reached 63.3 per dollar.
However, everything depends on results declared for April 17 meeting, OPEC members and OPEC in Doha. Agree on at least the freezing of oil production, including Tehran, the oil will slowly go up. Followed the ruble. And there’s our GDP will be connected. But more reliable, according to experts, extraction of «black gold» still to reduce.