Maintain Economy ― How to attach ₽ 3.7 trillion pension?
The theme of the future of the pension system last week was again in the spotlight. More importantly, in the near future, probably, will return to it again and again. About it says economic analyst Alexei Bobrovsky in the program «Replica».
Saved, saved, but still not enough… In a demographic hole 90s are starting to fall now, when the number of pensioners is growing, the proportion of Russians is reduced. Reform is definitely overdue, however, what criteria the government will take as a basis, is unclear.
Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets at a conference RSPP estimated losses to the cumulative part of the pension system in 2015 to 200 billion roubles. The Central Bank which regulates the market, in General, has refuted these figures. More specifically, during 2014, citizens received a total income of more than 60 billion rubles, which corresponds to an annual yield of 5.5%. And in 2015 the industry, albeit on preliminary data, but improved the results by increasing the total income to 172 billion rubles.
In General, the question is not who as considered, and in which the destiny of the storage system, in particular SPC and the market in General, and in the last couple of years, all the more reasons to worry and for it and for more. Do not prepare us to the fourth one already freeze the funded part, say?
So, the Deputy Prime Minister all at the same event RSPP said that the Finance Ministry would not prevent the abolition of mandatory funded pension. This is a very long time whether seeking the social block of the government, whether it is serious thinking in this direction, often speaking on this topic in the media. The bad news.
I understand the concern of the social block of the government, the head responsible for the hardest area of activity of the Cabinet of Ministers. It is the money of current and future retirees. These are people who need to have their interests do not just take into account, but defended the most active way. This is the basis for stability in the end of any state. Because it is so important to understand this question.
You know, there’s strategy and there is tactics. The tasks are local, and there are more global. But looking at what proportion of the expenditure side of the budget is transfers to the pension Fund, will not will will start to wonder what will happen next? Because the trend is clear: every year the number of pensioners increases. Yes, we in the early 90’s happened a demographic failure, Yes, from those who are now working in the social and economic block of the government, this is nobody’s fault, but that is no reason to approach the issue on the principle of «whether claims to the buttons».
Reform, active steps in this direction is long overdue. Pension funds in many countries, with whom we would like to compare ourselves, notable participants of the financial market in General and stock in particular. For example, a great idea not so long ago was heard from the RSPP, which, incidentally, was supported by the President: to include non-state funds in the privatization process. We were worried that the privatization of large-scale brewing is not clear why, at a time like this, but the idea, admittedly, is drawn very good. It particularly supported in the Discussion.
The market value of many assets are currently low, and if will involve major business organizations, you will definitely have questions.
But the participation of pension funds, if we don’t freeze the cumulative part of the pension and use these tools, be sure to give a very good result. In fact, the people — the participants of the funded system and with the money in the Fund will become co-owners of a certain number of companies.
The development of investment possibilities of the pension is a huge plus from the point of view of attracting foreign money. It is known that the participation of pension funds in the project is an almost guarantee that Western or Eastern capital wants to be in it.
In short, everything is understood: the head of the CBR Elvira Nabiullina continues to speak about the importance of the savings element of the pension system, but the social block of the government sees in the future only insurance. According to Ministry estimates, a three-year moratorium on the transfer of mandatory savings private Fund managers worth about 900 billion rubles of actually neoinvestor. Very bold for such a complex from an economic point of view period. Another interesting thing: in the case of, for example, generally refuse mandatory funded part will we do with the already accumulated three and a half trillions roubles? How does all this explain to people?