Maintain Economy ― What to choose — Euro or dollar?
The U.S. currency recently can not determine the direction of movement: it grows, it falls against the currencies of its major trading partners, primarily the Euro. Yes and we are primarily interested in precisely this correlation is EUR/USD. About it says in the program «Replica» Alexander Kireevskii.
The confrontation between the major currency pair are much more than just numbers. We are talking about a global struggle for supremacy in the global economy. And changes in exchange rates is only the tip of the iceberg.
With the dollar we are bound by oil prices. And with Europe we actively trade, conduct business, vacation there — of course, considerably less. And major transactions both by individuals and legal entities are made in these two currencies. And often the participants in such transactions can not decide what to prefer: green paper or color — the dollar or the Euro. I must say that, despite seemingly strong movement in the Forex market, the ratio of EUR/USD for the last year does not change much.
Everything happens in the range of 1,05-1,15. On average, the course revolves around the level of 1.10, i.e. euros more expensive than the dollar by 10%. And, it seems, until the situation suits all. I mean the global players, which determine ultimately the situation on the currency market. And between the global players, as a rule, there is a consensus. The party of the strong dollar cannot defeat those who are willing to sacrifice the American currency for the sake of world conquest, or rather, to maintain control over the whole world.
Now let me explain what I mean. There is a version of current events in the global currency market. And, I have to say, I think it’s plausible. Now, the situation in the world economy after the crisis of 2008 was such that the global elite to choose. Or to support the U.S. economy and continue to develop.
To do it bid in the global competition. Or even offer it as a sacrifice to keep control of the world in its present form. To do both just isn’t working out: not enough resources. The selection of a particular strategy will depend on the specific tactics of monetary policy of the US Federal reserve. In one case the rate needs to increase and to continue the policy, figuratively speaking, «the cleaner», which is from 2012. Money with the periphery of the capitalist system are the center in the metropolis. It has already led to the appreciation of the dollar to other currencies by 20% for the last three years. In another — you need to lower rates, resume QE. To say easier to run the typewriter a dollar to the fullest, as it was until 2014. And so to appease local elites, not to allow them to rebel. For now, the discontent of the States in the world caused by this very circumstance. Dollar makeup much fail, because the money goes home in the United States.
However, both strategies have their problems and limitations. What they are is a separate conversation. But in recent years the contradictions between supporters of the two concepts more and more aggravated. Especially clearly delineated two groups after the case of the former head of the IMF Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who was a supporter of the creation based on international monetary Fund Central Bank of Central banks. That is, to create a supranational currency that could replace the dollar as the world reserve currency.
Today, this idea that the world media is not discussed, but as you know, to kill the IDEA impossible. And life demanding answers to questions. How to recover the current global financial system? Simply put, what to do with the dollar? To devalue it as it was many times in history. The last — 30 years ago. And thus save the bucks financial hegemon. Or go through the creation of multiple currency zones. In this system the dollar has become one of world reserve currencies. The isolationists in the US win. While America builds its international relations on the other, than now, basis. Affect other States through mutually beneficial proposals and not by direct diktat, as it is now. However, it needs to raise rates and strengthen the dollar, thereby saving the US financial system from collapse. Well, the rest of the world he somehow struggled out and saves himself. Of course, this is only an approximate diagram of the current global financial problems. The reality is much more complicated. You need to think through a lot of intermediate options. And while the issue is not resolved which way to go, same the Federal reserve conducts policy and yours, and ours. He tries to balance between these poles. Hence the constant contradictory statements: we will kick it up a notch, we’ll wait.
Of course, the official reasons are purely economic: jobs, markets and so on. But in fact America’s Central Bank will wait for the outcome of the elections in the country. When it is clear which party global elite prevailed. And even then build their financial policy for real. And in the meantime will continue a lot of fog. And from the regulator and will continue to come conflicting signals, so currency to the players again have to worry.
Most likely, in my opinion, the current ratio of the main currencies will not change much. Anyway to the point, when not determined clear favorite in the presidential race in the United States. So stock up on popcorn — and welcome to the world’s political play on the American stage!