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Maintain Economy ― How long will the growth of the ruble?

«Three weeks ago I said that I have a faint hope that oil prices stabilize and the ruble may strengthen. While my hopes are justified: the oil is rising, is already past $ 40 per barrel, and the ruble reached 70 per dollar. The Euro is trading below 80,» — says in the program «Replica» economic observer Alexander Kireevskii.

Finally! Oil becomes more valuable, on the eve of the barrel broke the mark at $40. Traditionally strengthened the ruble. But how long will this happiness? Is there a chance to buy a ticket cheaper, because vacation time is not far off.

«How long will such happiness? The question now ask myself and business, and ordinary citizens. It’s time to start planning a vacation, and, of course, I want to buy a travel ticket cheaper. It may well be that such a possibility in the near future will be presented. I do not exclude that there is an option of a further strengthening of the ruble. Although I must say, very rapid growth is not expected yet. And the appreciation of our currency — a fact not undisputed. Exist as purely economic problems and political issues.

What can I say, our relations with the West in recent times can not be called simple! But they develop waves: it is very tense, there is hope for a compromise on critical issues. Now again the first phase. And this, of course, may prevent the ruble strengthened steadily. Investors in this case, fear of additional sanctions from the West. While this is not the question. But he can at any moment become actual. And the excuse will be either Ukraine or Syria, which continue to run peaceful people. And the Western press blames Russia. But thousands of international terrorists, of course, is neither here nor there! Looks like our Western «friends» don’t want to even try to really look at the situation. They are openly against all laws of common sense, are trying to accuse Russia of all mortal sins. In this scenario, the factor of tension in foreign policy at any moment throw into confusion those who play on the strengthening of the ruble. «Political black Swan» may arrive at any time.

But, as they say, swans to be afraid of — on the stock exchange not to sell. So bold speculators are buying our currency, abstracting from political factors and paying more attention to economic reality. And it is done and the major Western players. So, the largest operator on the international market Forex Deutsche Bank recently stated that he believes the ruble undervaluation of the currency in the world, thus hinting to its customers that the strengthening of the ruble can make good money. It should be noted that more than half of the turnover on the ruble on the Moscow exchange are created by aliens. And they grated the players, they know how to filter political risks, if the degree of tension allows you to earn money.

What they’re doing now, looking as rising oil prices. This factor, of course, is determining to market. But let’s leave the illusion: even if prices will rise even higher in the range of 42-46, further strengthening of the ruble will decelerate. It will keep up with the rising cost of oil for several reasons. First, many players doubt that the bullish trend in oil is here to stay. Skeptics do not believe that the agreement limiting deliveries will be respected. Moreover, the date of the meeting of the main suppliers, which was to be signed the final agreement has not yet been determined. This was stated by Minister of energy Alexander Novak. But even in the case of signature, there are many reasons, for individual countries this agreement was not honored, according to the pessimists.

The second reason behind the growth of the ruble against the possible growth of oil prices — and it is necessary to recognize frankly the disinterest of our regulator — the Central Bank — in excessive market volatility. The Central Bank has several times promised it would be to deal with large fluctuations of the national currency, believing that they are not going to benefit the economy. So in the case of strong appreciation of the ruble, for example, below 70, the controller can return to the idea of replenishing its foreign exchange reserves, as it was in may last year. Then the Central Bank launched the market when the dollar fell below 50 rubles. Now this level is likely to be a range 70-65 rubles per dollar.

It’s no secret that excessive strengthening of rouble to what our Ministry of Finance. Because now the price of oil in rubles is low, and it makes it difficult to implement the budget. So our monetary authorities will not sit idly by in the event of a sharp strengthening of the ruble, which could trigger speculators. As for the fundamental trend is reason enough. The domestic economy simply cannot develop successfully on the old model. Desperately needed a new strategy, or, as it is called, «Economics of growth», which does not rely on financial injections from the good uncle from across the ocean. And it is no, it’s not implemented, so to talk about sustainable and long-term growth of the ruble is not necessary».